A global study published in The Lancet estimates that by 2050, India could have more than 440 million overweight and obese individuals. This projection makes India the second most affected country, following China.
India’s Rising Obesity Burden
According to the study, the number of overweight and obese adults in India could reach 218 million men and 231 million women by mid-century. This would place India just behind China, with the United States, Brazil, and Nigeria ranking third, fourth, and fifth, respectively.
Researchers from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) contributed to this study as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
Current Global and Indian Trends
In 2021, nearly half of the world’s adults—over one billion men and one billion women aged 25 and above—were overweight or obese. In India, this number already exceeded 180 million, with 81 million men and 98 million women affected.
By 2050, researchers predict the global figure will surge to nearly 3.8 billion people, making up more than half of the world’s adult population.
Obesity Among Children and Young Adults in India
As reported by ndtv, the study also warns that childhood obesity will continue to rise. By 2050, India could have 16 million overweight boys and over 14 million overweight girls aged 5-14 years. This would make it the second most affected country after China.
However, for the 15-24 age group, India is expected to bear the highest global burden, with over 22 million men and nearly 17 million women struggling with obesity.
A Global Health Crisis
Lead author Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, described the obesity epidemic as a “profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.” She emphasized that the study—the most comprehensive global analysis to date—can help governments and public health officials identify priority populations for intervention and prevention strategies.
India’s Response to the Obesity Crisis
Amid these alarming projections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the need to combat obesity in his ‘Mann Ki Baat’ radio address on February 23. He stressed that India must tackle obesity to become a fit and healthy nation.
Obesity: A Complex Health Concern
Obesity, defined by a Body Mass Index (BMI) over 30, significantly increases the risk of metabolic disorders, heart disease, bone health issues, fertility problems, and even cancer.
However, experts argue that BMI alone is an incomplete measure of health. In January 2024, a Lancet Commission report recommended a more nuanced approach to diagnosing obesity.
A New Approach to Obesity Diagnosis
Researchers suggest incorporating waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio alongside BMI to improve accuracy. They propose two new diagnostic categories:
- Clinical Obesity – A chronic condition caused by obesity-related organ dysfunction.
- Pre-Clinical Obesity – An increased health risk due to excess weight, but without immediate illness.
By adopting these refined methods, healthcare systems can provide better diagnoses and targeted treatments. This approach will ensure more effective obesity management in the years to come.