In the early stages of the pandemic, Australian scientists began a long-term study to observe how SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, would evolve in a controlled environment. More than five years later, their findings, published in the Journal of Virology, reveal consistent mutation patterns. These insights may help predict future variants and guide vaccine and treatment development.
A Controlled Look at Viral Adaptation
To study the virus without outside influence, researchers grew 11 samples from nine COVID-19 variants—including alpha, delta, and omicron—in Vero E6 cells. These monkey kidney cells, which lack a strong immune response, allowed the virus to evolve freely. Using a method called serial passaging, they transferred the virus between cell cultures up to 100 times—far beyond previous studies.
Mutations That Mirror the Real World
As reported by Medicalxpress, the team observed that the virus continued to mutate over time, showing no signs of weakening. Notably, some mutations appeared repeatedly across different variants—a phenomenon known as convergent evolution. Many of these matched changes seen in real-world outbreaks, even though the lab setting lacked immune pressures.
Understanding the Virus’s Inner Workings
Senior author Professor William Rawlinson noted that some mutations likely result from the virus’s internal structure rather than external factors like immunity. Interestingly, while many changes occurred in the spike protein. Other viral regions mutated at even higher rates—some of which may impact vaccine effectiveness.
Open Data, Future Research
The study offers a clearer view of SARS-CoV-2’s natural evolution and highlights the importance of repeat mutations. Researchers have shared all sequencing data publicly to support further analysis. According to lead author Dr. Charles Foster, these findings could improve how scientists anticipate and respond to the virus’s next moves.