A recent study published in Nature Communications by researchers from Washington State University, the California Institute of Technology, and the University of North Carolina has raised alarms about a group of bat viruses closely related to the deadly Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The study reveals that a specific subgroup, known as HKU5, may be only one small mutation away from gaining the ability to infect humans—posing a potential risk of sparking another global pandemic.
What Are Merbecoviruses?
Merbecoviruses are a subgenus of coronaviruses that includes MERS-CoV, a virus first identified in 2012 that carries a high mortality rate of about 34%. These viruses mainly infect bats but have shown the capacity to jump to humans and cause pandemic, as seen with MERS-CoV. While most merbecoviruses have been studied to some degree, researchers have only recently begun to focus on the HKU5 subgroup.
New Discovery Reveals Human Infection Is Plausible
The study specifically examined how HKU5 viruses infect host cells. Researchers discovered that HKU5 viruses can use the ACE2 receptor—the same receptor exploited by SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19—to enter cells. At present, HKU5 viruses can only bind effectively to the bat version of ACE2, not the human one. However, the research indicates that a single mutation could change that.
Using advanced AI modeling, scientists simulated how the spike protein of HKU5 interacts with ACE2 at the molecular level. This helped them identify possible mutations that could enable human infection, making the virus a potential zoonotic threat.
The Real Risk of Zoonotic Spillover
As reported by TOI, Zoonotic spillover—the transmission of viruses from animals to humans—has triggered major pandemics, including SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. The ability of HKU5 viruses to bind ACE2 receptors in bats suggests they could eventually do the same in humans. Adding to the concern, the study found evidence that one HKU5 virus in China had already crossed species to infect minks, indicating its capacity to breach interspecies barriers.
While there is no current evidence of human infections from HKU5, the mutation potential makes them a critical target for global surveillance and preparedness efforts.
AI Accelerates Virus Research and Risk Assessment
Researchers employed AlphaFold 3, an artificial intelligence tool, to rapidly model how HKU5’s spike protein might bind with the ACE2 receptor. This process, which previously required months of complex lab experiments, now takes mere minutes. The AI-generated predictions closely matched those of recent traditional studies, validating the approach.
This innovation marks a turning point in virus research, enabling faster risk analysis and supporting the development of countermeasures before a virus becomes a public health emergency.
Surveillance and Preparedness Are More Important Than Ever
Although the findings do not indicate an immediate threat, the potential for HKU5 viruses to evolve and infect humans cannot be ignored. Continuous monitoring and in-depth research into bat coronaviruses remain essential. Understanding how these viruses operate and mutate equips scientists with the knowledge needed to prevent the next pandemic.
As history has shown, the leap from animals to humans can have devastating consequences. Therefore, global health systems must remain alert and proactive. This study serves as a sobering reminder of the ongoing threat posed by zoonotic diseases and highlights the critical role of science and technology in safeguarding public health.