Adverse health effects linked to emissions from the global plastics system could more than double by 2040 compared to 2016 levels if current trends continue, according to a new study. These impacts stem from greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles, and toxic chemicals released throughout plastics production and disposal.
Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, the study also warns that global plastic production may not peak until after 2100, further intensifying environmental and health pressures in an already strained system.
Growing Evidence of Plastics’ Impact on Human Health
Plastic pollution and emissions across the plastics lifecycle are increasingly recognised for their harmful effects on human health. However, researchers note that the full scale of these impacts is only now beginning to be quantified.
As reported by Hindu, scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, in collaboration with research institutes in France, emphasised that quantifying health impacts across the entire plastics lifecycle can guide global action against pollution while supporting sustainability goals across environmental, economic, and health systems.
Data Gaps Limit Effective Policy Action
Despite growing concern, the researchers identified non-disclosure of chemical compositions in plastics as a major barrier to accurate lifecycle assessments. This lack of transparency, they said, severely limits the ability of policymakers to design effective and evidence-based interventions.
Consequently, improving chemical disclosure remains essential for strengthening health impact assessments and regulatory frameworks.
First Global-Scale Assessment of Health Burden
Importantly, this study represents the first global-scale lifecycle assessment to estimate health impacts from plastics using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The analysis links plastics-related emissions to health burdens caused by global warming, air pollution, and exposure to toxic chemicals.
The researchers evaluated emissions from every stage of the plastics lifecycle, including raw material extraction, polymer production, post-consumer waste collection, recycling processes, dumpsites, open burning, and environmental pollution.
A Flexible Framework for Future Policy Decisions
The modelling framework developed in the study offers a flexible and expandable approach that can incorporate new data, improved methods, and alternative materials. As a result, it can enhance the precision of health impact estimates related to plastics, substitutes, and emerging technologies.
According to the authors, such a framework is particularly valuable in a rapidly evolving global policy landscape.
Primary Plastic Production Drives the Greatest Harm
The study found that primary (virgin) plastic production and open burning contribute the most to health harms. These emissions drive increased risks of climate-related health effects, air pollution, toxicity-related cancers, and non-communicable diseases.
Under a business-as-usual plastics-to-ocean (P2O BAU) scenario, adverse health effects linked to plastics more than doubled between 2016 and 2040.
Urgent Need for Upstream and Lifecycle-Based Policies
Based on these findings, the framework strongly recommends a deep reduction in primary plastic production, particularly for non-essential uses. In addition, it calls for policy assessments that account for the functional role of plastics across sectors rather than treating all plastic use uniformly.
The researchers stressed that globally coordinated policies addressing upstream production and full lifecycle impacts are critical to protecting human health.
Global Plastics Treaty in Focus
To effectively reduce plastic-related emissions and health impacts, policymakers must significantly curb the production of new plastics, especially for non-essential applications, the authors concluded.
Encouragingly, more than 175 countries have already agreed to develop a Global Plastics Treaty, which remains under negotiation. The study’s findings underscore the urgency of translating these negotiations into strong, enforceable actions that prioritise both environmental sustainability and public health.