In 2020, liver cancer affected approximately 905,700 people and claimed 830,200 lives. It continues to rank among the top three causes of cancer-related deaths in many countries. With liver disease incidence steadily increasing, experts warn that these numbers could surge further. However, a new study published in The Lancet reveals that over 60% of liver cancer cases are preventable.
Preventable Risk Factors Identified
According to the analysis, three out of five liver cancer cases could be avoided by tackling major modifiable risk factors. These include chronic viral hepatitis (HBV and HCV), alcohol consumption, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)—a condition caused by excessive fat buildup in the liver. The severe form of MASLD, known as MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), is predicted to cause 35% more liver cancer cases by 2050, rising from 8% to 11%.
Obesity and Diabetes Drive Liver Disease
Obesity and diabetes are key contributors to MASLD. Today, about one-third of the global population is believed to have MASLD, though only 20–30% progress to MASH, which leads to liver damage and inflammation. With obesity on the rise, researchers expect MASLD-related liver cancer cases to increase sharply over the next decade.
Call for Public Health Action
The Commission behind the study recommends several interventions to reduce liver cancer risk:
- Expand hepatitis B vaccine coverage
- Enforce public health policies targeting obesity and alcohol use
- Integrate liver health screenings into routine care for high-risk patients
- Promote healthier lifestyles through diet and physical activity counseling
“Liver cancer was once primarily linked to viral hepatitis and alcohol,” said Prof Hashem B El-Serag of Baylor College of Medicine. “But today, obesity is a growing risk due to rising fat accumulation in the liver. We must act by embedding screening and prevention strategies into everyday healthcare and policymaking.”
Future Burden Could Double Without Intervention
Without urgent action, new liver cancer cases could nearly double from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050. Deaths are also projected to rise from 760,000 to 1.37 million in the same period, with the highest increase expected in Africa. The primary driver is population growth and aging, but modifiable risk factors remain the most actionable concern.
Regional Burden and China’s Share
China alone accounts for over 40% of global liver cancer cases, largely due to high hepatitis B prevalence. As such, localised prevention efforts are also vital.
Policy and Awareness Must Go Hand-in-Hand
“There is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent liver cancer cases, and save lives,” said Prof Stephen Chan of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Prof Jian Zhou of Fudan University emphasized that liver cancer remains one of the hardest cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates between 5% and 30%. “We must reverse this trend,” he urged.
Preventing Millions of Cases and Deaths
As reported by TOI, the Commission estimates that reducing liver cancer incidence by just 2–5% annually by 2050 could prevent 9–17 million cases and save 8–15 million lives. Beyond prevention, the report also highlights the urgent need for more research and support to improve patients’ quality of life.
A Clear Call for Collective Action
Prof Valérie Paradis from Beaujon Hospital (France) concluded, “Unlike many other cancers, liver cancer has well-defined risk factors. That makes it highly preventable—if we act now. With joint and sustained efforts, we can significantly improve both survival and quality of life for liver cancer patients worldwide.”