India could experience the greatest long-term impact of chikungunya, with an estimated 51 lakh people at risk of infection every year, according to a global modelling study published in BMJ Global Health. The research warns that the mosquito-borne virus could place a major burden on India’s healthcare system in the coming years.
Global Hotspots Identified
The study, conducted by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, found that Brazil and Indonesia may be the second and third most affected countries. Together, India and Brazil could account for 48 per cent of the global health and economic impact caused by chikungunya.
Chronic Complications Pose a Major Concern
Researchers emphasised that long-term disability is likely to be the biggest challenge. Evidence suggests that up to 50 per cent of infected individuals could suffer from chronic joint pain and other lasting complications. Globally, the study estimates that over 1.4 crore people could face the risk of chikungunya infection every year in the long run.
Urgent Need for Preparedness
“The potential spread of mosquitoes carrying chikungunya cannot wait for years of research,” said Dr. Sushant Sahastrabuddhe, Associate Director General of Innovation, Initiatives, and Enterprise Development at the International Vaccine Institute, South Korea. He added that the model developed by the team aims to help public health authorities respond in real time to outbreaks and plan preventive strategies for the future.
About the Virus
Chikungunya is transmitted through the bites of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes—commonly known as yellow fever and tiger mosquitoes. The infection causes high fever, severe joint pain, and fatigue, and around half of the patients continue to experience long-term joint pain or disability.
Limited Treatment, Some Vaccines Available
Currently, there is no specific antiviral treatment for chikungunya. Care is mainly supportive, focusing on pain relief and hydration. However, two preventive vaccines have been approved for use in certain countries, including the United States, offering hope for targeted protection in high-risk areas.
A First-of-Its-Kind Predictive Model
The Indian Express reported that this study is the first global effort to estimate chikungunya’s burden. It uses existing infection data combined with predictive risk factors. Previous estimates often relied on outbreak reports and surveillance data, which researchers believe underestimated the true impact.
Identifying Vulnerable Age Groups
The model also highlights specific high-risk groups. These include children under 10 and adults over 80, who are more likely to experience severe symptoms or death. Meanwhile, people aged 40–60 years are most affected by chronic complications. The authors say these findings could guide vaccine introduction strategies. They could also help prioritise vulnerable populations.
Expanding Threat Beyond the Tropics
Lead researcher Hyolim Kang, a research fellow at Nagasaki University, warned that the risk of chikungunya is expanding. He said it is no longer limited to tropical or subtropical regions. “Our analysis shows that mosquitoes carrying chikungunya could spread well beyond traditional zones,” Kang explained. “Prevention is critical because there are no antiviral drugs for chikungunya. Even healthy individuals can be infected and left with lifelong disability.”
A Call for Global Vigilance
The disease is showing signs of expanding into new territories. Researchers stress the need for early surveillance, vaccination, and vector control measures. Strengthening public health preparedness could play a key role in India. It can help mitigate the long-term human and economic toll of chikungunya.