A large international study covering 204 countries has revealed that the incidence of breast cancer in India has more than doubled between 1990 and 2023. The research also warns that the number of cases could rise sharply by 2050 if key modifiable risk factors are not addressed.
The findings were published by the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators in the journal The Lancet Oncology. According to the study, India’s breast cancer incidence rate increased from 13 cases per 100,000 women in 1990 to 29.4 per 100,000 women in 2023.
At the same time, the age-standardised mortality rate rose from 8.9 to 15.5 per 100,000 women, representing a 74 percent increase in breast cancer-related deaths during the same period.
Breast Cancer Remains a Leading Global Health Challenge
Breast cancer continues to be the leading cause of cancer-related illness and premature death among women worldwide. In 2023, researchers estimated around 2.3 million new cases and approximately 760,000 deaths globally.
Moreover, projections suggest that the burden will increase further. By 2050, global breast cancer cases could rise by one-third to nearly 3.5 million, despite advances in screening, diagnosis, and treatment.
Age Patterns Reveal Changing Trends
The study also highlights notable differences across age groups. In 2023, women aged 55 years and older experienced significantly higher rates of new breast cancer diagnoses compared with younger women.
Specifically, about 161 new cases per 100,000 women were reported in those aged 55 and above, compared with 50 cases per 100,000 women aged 20–54 years.
However, researchers observed a 29 percent increase in breast cancer cases among women aged 20–54 since 1990, while incidence rates among older women have remained relatively stable. These trends reflect evolving lifestyle patterns, reproductive factors, and hormonal influences, which differ between premenopausal and postmenopausal women.
Rising Economic Burden in Middle-Income Countries
In addition to the health impact, breast cancer is placing a significant economic burden on healthcare systems.
As reported by TOI, the study estimates that in middle-income countries such as India, the total economic cost of breast cancer reached approximately $8.13 billion in 2021. Furthermore, if the current trends continue, the financial burden could increase to nearly $14 billion by 2030.
Modifiable Risk Factors Offer Opportunities for Prevention
Importantly, researchers identified six modifiable risk factors that account for over one-quarter of healthy years lost due to breast cancer.
These include:
• High red meat consumption
• Tobacco use
• High blood sugar levels
• High body mass index (BMI)
Because these risk factors are preventable, experts believe targeted public health interventions could significantly reduce future disease burden.
Experts Stress Urgent Need for Early Action
According to Jyoti Bajpai, Lead Medical and Precision Oncologist at Apollo Hospitals, the projected increase in breast cancer cases should be viewed as a warning rather than an inevitability.
She emphasised that the projected rise by 2050 is not predetermined but preventable. With organised screening programmes, timely diagnostics, and universal access to evidence-based treatment, healthcare systems can significantly reduce mortality and disease burden.
Changing Lifestyle and Reproductive Patterns Contribute to Rising Cases
Sudeep Gupta, Director of the Tata Memorial Centre, explained that rising development levels often coincide with increased incidence of certain cancers, particularly breast cancer.
He noted that changing reproductive patterns, increased tobacco and alcohol consumption, and other lifestyle shifts have contributed to the rising incidence observed in India and other developing nations.
Detection Improves but Global Inequality Persists
While improved detection has contributed to higher reported incidence rates, experts believe the findings also highlight the persistent gap between developed and developing countries.
Kumar Prabhash, Senior Medical Oncologist at Tata Memorial Hospital in Mumbai, stated that the study demonstrates progress in identifying breast cancer cases in underserved regions. However, it also underscores the need to bridge disparities in healthcare access and treatment outcomes.
Strengthening Prevention and Treatment Systems
Finally, the study’s authors emphasised that reducing the global breast cancer burden will require comprehensive strategies. These include aggressive prevention initiatives, robust healthcare systems capable of early diagnosis, and universal access to high-quality treatment.
In addition, making cancer care affordable and accessible will be essential to ensure that all women have an equal opportunity to survive breast cancer.